Leaky Lockdown

Math Modeling for Covid19

SUCCESS, July2020:
Rwanda uses pooled testing

According to NPR, Rwanda is using pooled testing combined with surveilliance testing (random testing, not based on symptoms) to aggressively address COVID-19 detection. They are using a 20-25 to 1 ratio.

Researchers supporting the Rwanda effort (from multiple countries, including Rwanda and Ontario, Canada) also have a very good pre-print paper titled A strategy for finding people infected with SARS-CoV-2: optimizing pooled testing at low prevalence.

A great video intro, with animations

A great intro on Covid19 and infection dynamics. It has way better animations than my stuff.

Math Modeling

Update 5/15/2020: (more links)

I build practical models to solve and communicate key coronavirus math ideas. See the links:

But the best models I've found are actually NOT made by me. See the links below.

A great intro to epidemiology

This is a fantastic intro to key epidemiology concepts,like R0, susceptible, exposed, infected, and recovered.

With playable simulations. https://ncase.me/covid-19/?v=2I

NOTE: It is thorough, but a bit long. If you don't love science and math, you might want to pace yourself... maybe do the whole thing over 4 days.

One Criticism: They are looking at this as a common "pool" where people randomly infect another random person in the pool. This isn't true. People are more likely to infect people in their school or social grouping.

So, even if we reach herd immunity in society overall, that doesn't mean the meat-packing plant will have herd immunity. And the meat packing plant may have an outbreak that spreads very fast.

Increase coronavirus testing by 800%

There is a simple method called pooled testing. It's just math and works for surveillance. They use it in Germany, Stanford (once), and Isreal.

You could literally run the test on all 200 people on a plane flight 2 hours before the flight. It might be the secret to opening up society.

Epidemiological surveillance testing via pooled testing.

Animated simulation, with parameters

Excellent simulation, using linear motion to express the "exposure" dynamics. Take a look: